And now the bastards have upset the Trumpmeister General...he ain’t happy: “If the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S. They make it impossible for our cars (and more) to sell there. Big trade imbalance!” EU negotiators?...my mums peg bag...
I think I agree with all of what you say, except for your comment on insults & derogatory comments, where I think you may have misunderstood the Turkey/Xmas analogy? The analogy is an observation on the outcome (pain) of a choice (to leave). Not a criticism of the choice itself. So where a group (leavers) makes a choice and the outcome of that choice is actually going to be detrimental to the group (10 years of reduced living standards), then is it really insulting or derogatory to call that out?
Just imagine it, if any or even all of the other political parties started using fear as a tool to subdue the electorate! I shudder to think. And in other news: Water is still wet. Your crystal ball can tell you what will happen over the next ten years? Also, "detrimental" is a very broad brush stroke. Even assuming a period of ten years of reduced living standards, which no sane person would do, is that going to be the only outcome of Brexit? Care to speculate on what else might result? Don't feel you have to limit yourself to negative forecasting.
Yes mate. That’s how I managed to retire at 55. By forecasting ahead. Not too hard if you keep in touch with the markets & the data. But when the 5 top global economic forecasting organisations also suggest a negative impact, while I don’t take that as gospel, I think its probably a fairly likely outcome. I don’t think it’s a question of sanity but more case of learning from history. The impact of the 2007 financial crisis has taken 10 years for us to recover from. Fact. Why would something of such significant economic impact as Brexit be different? Perhaps you’d like to tell me why it’ll be positive? How much will our GDP grow from 2019? What will the call in unemployment look like from 2019? Etc. The honest answer isn’t you can’t because no models have been done by UK Gov etc that model the impact. So at the moment, all Brexit offers is a strategy of hope. Good luck with that.
Even May has admitted this week that trade will be more difficult after Brexit. There is no way that in the short to medium term we will be better off.
Not possible to have common trade without common politics. Common trade means not only common access, but also common working conditions Hours Holidays Maternity Health & Safety Manufacturing standards Environmental standards Etc etc It’s quite simple and yet most Brexiters don’t understand it Otherwise you end up with a race to the bottom with the kind of factories you have in the Far East where people die. And before anyone hands me drama queen badge, we still have factories explode and people die in this country because the laws are not obeyed by everyone.
Pretty much read my mind. Some people of a certain mindset THINK it will be detrimental,and these people are generally of the Remain voting variety...and so far,their dire predictions for the immediate post-Referendum period have been spectacularly and embarrassingly wrong. Every. Single. One. And yet many Remain voters still cling to the coat tails of their chosen soothsaying snake oil salesmen,treating their every utterance as if delivered from on high on tablets of stone...*puzzled* Regardless of that,Mark Carney admits that wages are beginning to rise,unemployment is at record lows,economic growth is acceptable and several major companies,(that the leave campaign used as likely moving out of the UK),such as Airbus/Toyota etc,have publicly affirmed their intention to stay. The obvious current downsides such as the expense of European travel,buying a brand new car,or consuming European wine may not concern those Turkeys,(those costs may be offset by cheaper non-EU imports anyway). There are plenty of folk who see no downsides except the constant,grinding and pointless negativity imagined and encouraged by media,public figures and politicians,a view which has infected large numbers of intelligent people. There is no factual basis for their threats, no more than there is evidence for a UK wide explosion in personal wealth...ain’t gonna happen,either way. But give someone the dream of being better off outside the EU when he’s been poor for years inside it? Thats not being a turkey,thats being bloody sensible...
Why didn't the top 5 economic forecasting organisations predict the 2007 crash then? Getting it wrong more times than getting it right Studies reveal the inability of forecasters to correctly or timeously predict outcomes. Based on a sample of 63 industrial and developing countries, a study by Prakash Loungani at the International Monetary Fund is revealing. It showed that private sector forecasters were only able to predict two of the 60 recessions that occurred over the sample while the majority remained undetected. Professor Philip Tetlock also spent many years researching the accuracy of forecasts – specifically in a political realm. After collecting and analysing 28 000 predictions from 284 experts, he found that the average expert’s forecasts were only slightly more accurate than random guessing. This ubiquitous failure to make predictions in an uncertain world has called to question the reliability of “official” forecasts generated by government and inter-governmental institutions as well as those from the private sector. https://theconversation.com/economic-forecasting-why-it-matters-and-why-its-so-often-wrong-53829 https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2016/04/01/how-accurate-are-economic-forecasts Those of us optimistic about the future aren't banging on about how wonderful it's going to be post-Brexit,just that we are positive about it. And if there is anything useful to be learned from economists waffle,it's that the reason they keep getting it so wrong is because economic performance is driven by public sentiment-if people feel good,they buy..maybe they work harder/longer hours to get the money too,who knows? Whereas all we hear from others is that it's going to be doom and gloom for a decade,based on what? Projections and guesses from organisations that,wait for it,in the main receive vast subsidies from the very organisation they are trying to keep the UK tied to! And their supporters think that won't make them slightly biased? Them Turkeys ain't gonna vote for that Christmas are they... By the way,retiring at 55 isn't necessarily an advert for wisdom mate,any more than having millions in the bank. For example plenty of burdens on the taxpayer in the public sector retire at 55,they are not proper,competitive jobs where quality,price and efficiency mean the difference in having or not having a job. Have some sympathy for those working class women who paid their pension dutifully for decades only to be told they can't retire until 66 or 67,or the poor fuckers doing meaningful work keeping people fed and stock in the shops...you know,the ones whose jobs are most at risk from the uncontrolled numbers of unskilled immigrants,and who may have been some of those other voting Turkeys...
So seem to be saying there will be Trade, post-Brexit but it won't be common trade. In other words, when we leave the single market, we will no longer be in the single market. Thanks for clarifying. The rest of your soothsaying I ascribe to the normal Chicken Little prognostication of the hardened Remainder. And please, tone down the pronouncements of what people don't understand. You start that crap in a pub in Bognor Regis, there are people here who will arrange for you to receive six inches of Bognor rock somewhere high, out of sight and where the sun has never shown.
You've received a far better reply elsewhere than I could manage but for myself - financial forecasting has never really gotten its predictions right whilst we are in the EU yet there are demands for accurate forecasting post-Brexit. Laughable. No one knows what the future brings, under any circumstances whatsoever. People trying to convince you otherwise are simply selling something. People telling you that the UK is doomed, post-Brexit, are certainly trying to flog you something. The people that are selling you the line that life is only possible within the EU are doing so because their interests are served by Remaining. I don't refer to the frightened Remainders on the forum who continually rail against Brexit, I refer to the Banks, the Corporations, the political establishment. These are the people selling you the Remain position and because many people want to be told how things are, they listen to these vested interests. There's an aspect of The Emperor's New Clothes in this, too. Just to re-iterate - leaving the EU will affect our growth. It will go up more slowly or more quickly over the medium-term, but we cannot possibly know for sure the specifics. What we do know is that we will no longer be a part of a protectionist racket, run by drunks and sociopaths who, and this is the important part so pay attention, we can never dislodge from their palaces of power because they are immune to the ballot box. Our UK politicians are appallingly bad right now but there is a slight chance that they will ultimately be replaced by better people. That is in our hands. Compare this to the EU Commission and other aspects of the EU apparatchik, where reform and change will never be possible.
Bognor Regis is full of old people . I grew up going to east end pubs is Glasgow Inam sure some brexiters are aware and happy enough in a down turn in living standards, but most are not. Most seem to think that we will have free access to the single market and their reason for doing so is this: the German can industry can’t afford us to put tariffs on cars. That’s laughable. The U.K. is known as treasure island, they make that much money here. They can afford the hit on sales profits. They can get their money back in several ways. Increasing parts and servicing costs or reducing U.K. wages or,....... There is a reason Germany has a car industry and we don’t
Bognor Regis is full of old people . I grew up going to east end pubs is Glasgow LOLZ Inam sure some brexiters are aware and happy enough in a down turn in living standards, but most are not. Most seem to think that we will have free access to the single market and their reason for doing so is this: the German can industry can’t afford us to put tariffs on cars. That’s laughable. The U.K. is known as treasure island, they make that much money here. They can afford the hit on sales profits. They can get their money back in several ways. Increasing parts and servicing costs or reducing U.K. wages or,....... There is a reason Germany has a car industry and we don’t
Just imagine it, if any or even all of the other political parties started using fear as a tool to subdue the electorate! I shudder to think. And in other news: Water is still wet. there's using fear of poverty, jobs, loosing control etc then there is using fear of a people, that's what the times piece was setting out in its analysis of the 2010/15 GE's. i recognized it.
A couple of things, the market crash of 2007 was predicted. Maybe not by any of your top 5, but even Vince Canle predicted it. We are losing free access to the largest trading block in the world. That will cost business and people alike money because it will be more expensive to trade. There is now question about it, leaving the EU will be expensive. It’s an undeniable fact. You cannot leave, have different laws, different product standards and expect life to be cheaper. By all means be pro Brexit but you can only do so on the basis of saying it is worth to “take back control” PS Unemployment and inflation both rose last month.
Yeah, but they are feisty and spry. Are you sure about that? Are you dookie's evil twin? Cos, that would be awesome. Where are you get this stuff from? Is the answer, because Germans are industrious and Brits are lazy? What do I win? When do you think that the first UK car plants will arrive, after the G̶e̶r̶m̶a̶n̶s̶ EU no longer has a say in such matters?
A couple of things, the market crash of 2007 was predicted. Maybe not by any of your top 5, but even Vince Canle predicted it. yip, lts late 2006, not long opened up a workshop, sacrifices made and big debt racked up. this fella i know walks in for a blether, he owns timber business's all over and starts to predict the up coming crash, to the day!. he knew, therefore they knew.
I know of managers working in local HSBC banks who predicted the 2007 crash five years before it happened. It's another ploy by the Rothschilds and ther pals to prevent anyone getting close to their power and wealth.
So.... Brexiters are stupid and don't understand basic economics? Remainers are sheep and need to grow a pair? Right, gotcha
I had an aspidistra whose leaves used to curl up a couple of weeks before the BoE announced an interest rate increase. Infallible.
WOW And when I thought I'd heard it all along comes John Mcdonnell on Sky News just now. Apparently we'll all be saved, he and his buddy Corbyn can indeed negotiate a customs union with the EU and one that allows us to sign FTA's with the rest of the world, all whilst respecting the outcome of the referendum. The man's a genius. I must admit, Corbyn had me worried for a minute when he was asked last week about his Plan B.....which actually turns out is Plan A repeated over and over...... HUZZAH for Mcdonnell and Corbyn......HUZZAH http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-43202053/jeremy-corbyn-seeks-trade-deals-agreement-with-eu
