British Indy: What Happens Now?

No I don't mate.

I've not seen the AirBus piece but the Supermarket letter was merely the stated opinion of the CEOs. You are entitled to disagree with their opinion. Call it Project Fear if you like (melodramatic though that is) but I personally believe they genuinely think No Deal will be bad for their businesses and I broadly trust their judgement on that.

This Barclays article is different because it was just facts ... and it is labelling facts as "Project Fear" that I object to.

 

So Brexit, what happens now?

I have read a few threads on here. I've listened to LBC, not just James O'Brian but also Shelagh Fogarty and Nigel Farage. I've listened to the people who phone in. I have taken note of the vote on this thread whereby 65% of people (assuming they can't have voted twice) are in favour of leaving the EU without a deal. And that is what I think will happen.

There was a goodly moment when I thought that there would be a second ref. to ratify the deal or no deal that the government has or has not negotiated. I thought the country would come to its senses. But now I don't think it will.

The Brexiteers' position is not a rational one. They just hate the EU, everything it does and all the people who work for it. You can't argue with that. Their insistence that everything will be better for all post-Brexit can't be gainsaid. It's the same reasoning behind buying lottery tickets. You can prove that 99.999% of entrants will be poorer over the long term, but people still buy them. They want to believe.

And my view has evolved to "fair enough, then". If the majority of the country wants to fall over a cliff, they deserve to. I'm sorry for those who don't, but that is the place they live in. The Remain camp had everything going for it. A government who should have argued more forcefully or cleverly for the Remain position. But the population prefers to listen to demagogues like Farage, or the self-interested Boris, or the I'm-alright-Jack-because-I-already-have-millions-in-the-bank-ex-hedgefund-trader Jacob Rees Mogg.

It's a bit like the US. How sorry can you be for them that they have Trump running -ha! - the place? You can't be, very. They wanted him. They voted for him.
I have given up reading anything about mass shootings in the US, because I understand that Americans want them, or at least they want them more than they want gun control.

And so with Brexit, if the UK thinks on balance that Europe is toxic (and it does, whatever it tries to pretend to the contrary) and wants nothing to do with it - Give us no deal and tell Junker and the jackboot Germans to stuff it up their arse! - then so be it.
I voted with my feet 30 years ago.

 

... oh, and while I'm in Mme Mirma, crystal-ball predictive mode, I think that there will be a second Scottish ref. and that the Scots will vote to leave the UK and rejoin the EU.

The Troubles will kick off again as the hard border will be reinstated despite politicians' assurances that "nobody wanted that. No one could imagine that that would occur. It was an unforeseen consequence of Brexit."

The economy will tank for several years at least. The £ will lose value. There will be no change to non-EU immigration. Everyone will blame the government for not negotiating their perfect cake and handing slices around to everyone.

Enjoy!

 

I've not seen anything from Tescos saying No Deal will be fine. The only thing I have seen was basically "no comment - it is a matter for the voters". Where there are opinions from CEOs and Business Owners being voiced, the majority seems to be "No Deal would be disastrous". I generally trust their opinions about their own businesses.

 

If we’re doing predictions.

I think May will announce how we can’t leave because of xxxxxxxx and we will all live happily ever after.

 

Disastrous for everyone ? Or for big business ?

 

Tesco aren't a member of the BRC (British Retail Consortium) which is why they haven't commented alongside the other outlets. As to whether they have commented at all, I don't know; but I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't already prepared for the Brexit outcome, one way or another (or both).

 

Do or don't. It matters not to me.

 

Has the German parliament had a direct say in the negotiations? NO... Has the French or the Dutch or the Italian or the Spanish or the Polish etc etc.. parliaments had a direct say either ? NO .... You see, the way the EU works is a small group of unelected representatives get to make all demands and decisions on their behalf (and not necessarily in their interest). It's a bit like the way a Dictatorship works. The problem the EU have is that they're 'negotiating' with a Democracy, that's ALL of us, not just a few of our representatives at the sharp end. They still don't seem to get that. Of course any 'agreement' would need to be ratified through the UK's democratic process. Did they not understand that (ever)? If they won't re-open discussions on the one 'showstopping' part of the 'negotiated' agreement (the backstop) that's clearly totally unacceptable to both our elected house and by extension, the general public of the UK, then it's THEY who are pushing US ALL towards a hard Brexit. Infantile. Get back to fukin talking and finding another solution. Afterall, that's what they're paid to do, not take their ball home in stroppy fit.

 

If you were Tescos, you'd probably be betting on securing the Leave voters' custom by keeping schtum. They are somewhat in the merde at the moment in any case.

 

This is very funny.
There is an EU Parliament. People vote for their members. That's why you have Nigel sticking up for your interests.
But there are also plenty of meetings with the heads of state of the members, who are all democratically elected by their countries. These people are the proxies. You've got Teresa May, and anyone she nominates as a stand-in.

These guys and gals asked Barnier to negotiate on their behalf. He has done. The deal that has been proposed, that May accepted, is one that the other 27 countries can live with. If the UK can't, then, it doesn't sign it and it leaves without a deal. Fair enough, isn't it?

If you go to buy a bike and the bloke wants £3'000 more than you are prepared to pay, you don't buy it. Simples. Is he a turd for not accepting your insufficient offer? Why does he have to sell it to you?

 

Of course.
You'd expect him to imply that your not buying the bike would be disastrous for you. A perfectly reasonable and expected negotiating tactic. Just as you will be pointing out that his failure to sell you the bike at your price will be awful for him.

But in this case, he will let you leave to look for other bikes. You don't have to sign anything. It's called "no deal". You don't even have to speak to the bloke ever again, if you don't want to. Probably not the ideal situation, but it's your call.

 

I'd say the fact that the Judgement said "Due to the continuing uncertainty over whether there might be a no-deal Brexit, the Barclays group has determined that it cannot wait any longer to implement the scheme." is an indication.

So "Project Fear" basically boils down to "I don't believe it". Wow. I'd have more respect for people if they would just say that rather than all the melodrama of the Project Fear label being screamed out all the time.

Personally I do believe the statements made in the Barclays piece. Barclays is one of my business's clients and I have heard first hand from the Managers and Staff that we train, that the bank is putting significant time, effort and investment into preparations for a No Deal exit. I can't see why they would lie about saying that they need to pull the trigger on moving these clients and assets now because they are out of time. I'm sure it will be reported when it has actually happened .... though I guess perhaps you won't believe that either. I do wonder if there will ever come a time when everyone has to face facts or will the cognitive dissonance always be so great that some people will continue to kid themselves that white is black.