Do you have any evidence for these figures as they don’t line up with industry standards? MG for example are now offering lifetime guarantees on their batteries. And batteries are modular so would not need complete replacement except in very rare occasions. How many ICE cars have engine failures? What is the cost of engine replacement on sy a BMW X5? You are also completely wrong regarding brakes - they barely use them due to regen. And weight - average weight of EVs is pretty much exactly the same as average weight for ICE cars. Depreciation is again similar to ICE cars in the same price bracket (looks higher overall as presently no super cheap EVs available). The myth of fire risk - just search for industry figures on how many EVs are written off by fire compared to ICE and you will find it’s massively lower. I am not saying they are perfect but, no disrespect, the points you make have been repeated and disproven so many times . I am genuinely open to evidence of EVs having a lifespan of ten years, that like for like depreciation is ‘insane’, that brakes wear out quicker, but by evidence I don’t mean the Clueless Clarkson, the Daily Mail or GB news……..
Only anecdotal stories re battery life, as the cars are not yet 10-ish years old. But it is certainly a widely held belief imo. Of course I would as pleased as anyone if the estimates turn out to be untrue. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a31875141/electric-car-battery-life/ Car companies are known to be very loose with the truth. Think diesel scam on the emissions? ASAIK -without comparing all models, again the weight seems to be accurately described as significantly more than an ICE model. Again it would be good news if this were untrue. Civil and environmental engineering professor Kevin Heaslip, director of the University of Tennessee’s Center for Transportation Research, said EVs often weigh 30% more than gas-powered vehicles. The main reason is the weight of their batteries, which can add hundreds of pounds or more. This sampling shows a comparison between 2023 models and weights, according to Kelley Blue Book: Ford 150 truck: electric, 6,015 pounds; gas-powered, 4,060 pounds Hyundai: electric, 3,715 pounds; gas-powered, 2,899 pounds Volvo: electric, 4,662 pounds; gas-powered, 3,726 pounds I agree fully that the EV's are not an increased risk to drivers. THe risk of fire is from the lithium batteries which at the end of the cars life presumably in a scrap yard have the potential to ignite in the way that scrap ICE cars don't as we all are aware. Happy to hear otherwise, but with some supporting source unless you are a Fireman? On prices I have seen many articles. If its not true, EV manufacturers and distributors are doing a very poor job of getting the word out. https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/-government-must-take-action-on-falling-used-ev-values-says-bvrla Like you this is not an issue that I have a fixed opinion about. I'd actually like to know that EV's are lighter/ cheaper/ safer/ and a solid purchase -friends and family have them! But I'm far from convinced right now.
The 'road' tax we pay now isn't spent on the roads. The government are talking about replacing the tv licence and taxing everyone whether they have a TV or not they would/could do the same for the roads.
I agree, this is the best way to understand the future approach of the government it seems, they are looking to apply Taxes regardlessly if they can get away with it. (old as the hills stuff isn't it just.)
I agree with all of that, especially the "...works for a lot more people than maybe think it would". I have spoken to so many people that have made the switch and are surprised how convenient and cheap it is. I bought a brand new Subaru impreza in 2003 that lost half its value in 18 months, and the depreciation of so many cars has been awful over the 30 years I have been driving (aside from the covid blip). There are some well documented high depreciation EV cases over recent years such as the Porsche Taycan, however if you look into some of the reasons for that it is not as simple as fear of the value of the car and is instead mixed up in customers who have utilised the tax relief on buying a new EV that isn't available buying a second hand one, as well as tricks by dealers to qualify for buying more exclusive Porsches. As far as cars becoming scrap in 10 years.... the government over the years have forced the scrapping of older cars through scrappage schemes, emissions legislation, ULEZ and all sorts of other schemes. So most of us cannot sensibly keep a car for more than 10-15 years anyway (most even less.... company car opt-out policies often limit a cars age to 5 years). A large number of users will only need a charging point at home that requires no further upgrade to the grid or power generation though. Yes, there are on street and public parking solutions to be developed, however you would be surprised just how many chargers are already out there and the number is growing by the day. Doing a quick google I was surprised to see in 2024 the UK had only 8,500 petrol stations, yet 37,000 charging locations. Considering you can also charge your car at home (not refuel it), there are almost more options for charging than refuelling. In fact, if those the situation were reversed people would probably argue there was not enough refuelling infrastructure to cope. I am over simplifying and making frivolous comparisons, however I hope to highlight the situation is not as dire as many people believe and is only improving. There is a surplus of energy through the early hours when most people can charge at a nice slow rate. Again, this only resolves the problem of people that can home charge, however rather than create a problem for NG it actually solves one. I bought a 2 year old Tesla for £25k. Easily manages a 200mile trip, and is never going to lose me a tremendous amount of money. In fact, it has saved me more in running costs in one year than it could possibly depreciate. I think this is the problem. There are no clear figures, and there are companies and governments that are going to make it very hard to get a clear unbiased picture on that. It is a pity, because there should be a space for all solutions and policies should be set on whole life impacts rather than a snapshot that suits an argument. Plenty of EV's out there now are more than 10 years old. They were running on some of the older tech and are still going. I don't know exactly where we sit, however they will not all be scrap in 10 years. I think the weight gap is closing. I put a deposit down on the Alpine A290, a 220hp hot hatch with ~240mile range. The kerb weight of that is just under 1,500kg. By comparison the relatively lightweight Clio RS200 is just under 1,300kg. There is a general problem with car weight anyway, however whilst ICE cars are getting heavier due to safety legislation, EV cars are getting lighter due to better battery technology. It will not be long before there is some equivalence, especially when you add in the weight of a full tank of fuel.
The National grid will require significant upgrades to replace all the power supplied by fossil fueled cars. https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/84831/pdf/
I have see a charging rate of over 800miles/hr on mine (175kW), which would add 66 miles in 5mins..... we are getting there....
7 year old paper with a lot of "likely"s, which essentially confirms what we have already discussed - management of charging towards overnight at home to match current decrease in demand. The paper talks about managing fears, it doesn't outline significant blockers. Interestingly around the time this paper was written the UK's peak power demand had dropped (2007 to 2015) from 62GW to 53GW and the paper talks about an additional EV demand of 8-18GW (2017 to 2030). We in theory already have most of that extra demand with a number of nuclear stations underway, and with demand levelling to low demand times it is manageable.... it just needs some management. However that will require some intelligent input from the government, which could be the stumbling block!
I have a 2012 Defender that's my daily driver but I also have a 1959 Series 2. That's been on the road for 65 years now and still runs fine. Of course it's nowhere near the last word in comfort or refinement or anything really but it does work. Not sure if I have any point but unless I'm forced to take them off the road I'm hoping these will last me and I'm also hoping the cost per mile will be less overall than having a new EV. It would be childish of me to ask how many of today's cars, electric or otherwise, will still be going in 65 years but darn it I said it anyway...
I wish we had that freedom. We had to replace the Mrs' 2012 Freelander 2 years ago because we live just inside (the expanded) ULEZ and paying an extra £12.50 every time you wanted to use it would have been horrendous
Well a quick check on the completion date for Hinkley point says: In January 2024, EDF announced that it estimated that the final cost would be £31–35 billion (2015 prices, excluding interim interest), £41.6–47.9 billion in 2024 prices, with Unit 1 planned to become operational in 2029 to 2031. If we replaced all cars with an electric equivalent, it’s estimated we would need an additional 18GW of power. The new £20bn Hinkley C nuclear power station in Somerset will produce 3.2GW once it opens in 2030 – so we may need another six of these to meet demand. Then there presumably is a period of "shakedown. So maybe another 8 years? Then there's just another five more reeded... Don't hold your breath! LOL EDIT: Sizewell C nuclear power station is a project to construct a 3,200 MWe nuclear power station with two EPR reactors in Suffolk, England. The project was proposed by a consortium of EDF Energy and China General Nuclear Power Group, who at the time owned 80% and 20% of the project respectively. In 2022, the UK Government announced a buy-out to allow for the exit of CGN from the project and forming a 50% stake with EDF, though EDF expect this to fall below 20% following anticipated external investment. As of 30 June 2024, the project is 76.1% owned by the UK Government and 23.9% owned by EDF. The power station is expected to meet up to 7% of the UK's demand. The project is expected to commence in 2024 with construction taking between nine and twelve years, depending on developments at the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station, which is also being developed by EDF Energy and which shares major similarities with the Sizewell plant. So assuming this one ever gets built, that still leaves 4 more. I'm sorry but I'm just finding it impossible to be optimistic that the power needs are going to be available anytime soon. BTW a paper being 7 years old does not change the projected realities.
We can argue amongst ourselves as much as we like but I’m pretty sure petrol and diesel powered vehicles will be no more in 15 years time or less. Servicing on EVs is minimal I understand as they have so many fewer moving parts. I’ve just changed by Toyota CHR hybrid car which, whilst only a self charging hybrid, the newer technology is producing mpg figures in its first few weeks in the freezing cold that my previous model would only produce on warm summer days. The technology is moving on at a rapid rate.
Though read what I wrote above. in the 7 years prior to that report being written (which guessed at a future figure) the peak demand had already dropped 9GW.... so 7 years previous to the report we could already generate most of what they were predicting we might need. BTW my reference to it being 7 years old was to enable comparison of demand prior and since and improvements that have already been made since then, not to suggest it made it any less correct I expect the Nuclear stations are replacing coal/gas stations rather than providing extra capacity, or at least the first couple are, because there are quite a few underway and being planned. Nuclear only makes up around 10-15% of UK power generation, with around 50% still being generated by fossil fuels. Some of the numbers are quite interesting... if you look at figures from 2023 the highest demand was 44GW (23 Jan) and the lowest 14GW (16th July), with a total installed capacity of around 75GW..... it is definitely a demand balancing exercise as much as a capacity issue, and the beauty of an EV charging at home is that the energy company can offer you the cheap rates (or pay you!) to charge when it suits their balancing.
