[SIZE=+1]Ryder Notes: Pattern Recognition[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]by julian ryder [/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Thursday, September 26, 2013 [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]We're at that stage of the season when we have a very good idea what is going to happen. Jorge has to get the holeshot and try and fend off the Hondas. If the Repsol bikes get in front they'll have a scrap for a while and Marc Marquez will win. If the Repsols don't get in front they will have a fight and Marc Marquez will finish second. Rossi will finish fourth. Bradl, Crutchlow and Bautista will finish at varying distances depending on who's feeling good this weekend. The Ducatis will follow in line astern. Espargaro will win the CRT race. [/SIZE][SIZE=-1] Any deviation from this plot can now be counted as a surprise. What will it take to provide that surprise? Rain of course, although that's unlikely up here on the high plains of central Spain. Cal Crutchlow could be the man to do it, although he is still getting over his arm injuries and confusion over which fuel tank to use. There is also the question of fuel consumption, Aragon is a fuel heavy track and both Valentino and Cal have to be careful at the best of times while Jorge won't have any problems. Cal mutters about having to do the out lap at 30kph and the warm-up lap at not much more while trying to warm his tyres up. Then he has to sit next to a Honda rider gleefully revving his motor like a teenager at traffic lights. If next season's 20-litre rule were in force now, reckons Cal, he'd have finished two races this year. You may have to go to Moto3 for a surprise where Maria Herrera is wild-carding. She has won two Spanish Championship races this year so don't expect her to be slow [/SIZE]
Dovizioso says the Ducatis are stuck, a second off the pace.... and is clearly well motivated for the weekend ahead!! A disconsolate Andrea Dovizioso told the media he expected only to try to find the limit of the Ducati, which, he added, was still nowhere near the front. 'The gap is the gap,' he said, and not likely to be reduced any time soon. Dovizioso's frustration at the situation was starting to show, and the Italian made some barbed comments about where the real problem lies: in Bologna, with the people designing the bike. When asked about the work on restructuring the Ducati Corse organization, Dovizioso said that this was the most important change that needed making. 'This is the key point,' Dovizioso said. 'I spoke about this at the beginning of the season. The key point is not the bike. If until now we didn't fix the problem, then the bike is the consequence of the problem. So we have to fix a different point, not the bike now, but that is difficult.' The current organization had been unable to solve the problem, Dovizioso said. '[The people] who work on the bike didn't fix the problem. So it means the people who tried to fix the problem, are not fixing the problem.' Dovizioso rejected direct criticism of Ducati Corse, but admitted the same problems remained. 'They have many ideas, but still they didn't fix the problem,' he said
Anyone have an idea what is going on with Cal? At the beginning of the season, he was fighting with the aliens and achieving alien status himself. Now, he is clearly fighting with Bautista and Bradl and not always winning. Have the satellite Hondas improved beyond the Yam, is he being denied parts now that he is going to Ducati, or is he just failing to make the grade whilst others are improving? After all, there is flux in the championship. There is no reason to suppose that Cal would improve any faster than Bradl or Bautista (or Marquez, Lorenzo et al).
Final qualifying times, almost exactly in the order that Julian Ryder predicts them to finish! [TABLE] [TR] [TH="class: resultTitle, bgcolor: #000000"]Pos.[/TH] [TH="class: resultTitle, bgcolor: #000000"]Rider[/TH] [TH="class: resultTitle, bgcolor: #000000"]Team[/TH] [TH="class: resultTitle, bgcolor: #000000"]Bike[/TH] [TH="class: resultTitle, bgcolor: #000000"]Time[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Marc Marquez[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Repsol Honda Team[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Honda[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:47.804[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]2[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Jorge Lorenzo[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Yamaha Factory Racing[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Yamaha[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:47.814[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]3[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Dani Pedrosa[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Repsol Honda Team[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Honda[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:47.957[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]4[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Valentino Rossi[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Yamaha Factory Racing[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Yamaha[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:47.962[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]5[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Stefan Bradl[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]LCR Honda[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Honda[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:48.128[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]6[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Alvaro Bautista[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Go&Fun Honda Gresini[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Honda[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:48.302[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]7[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Cal Crutchlow[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Monster Yamaha Tech 3[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Yamaha[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:48.653[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]8[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Bradley Smith[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Monster Yamaha Tech 3[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Yamaha[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:48.854[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]9[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Andrea Dovizioso[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Ducati Team[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Ducati[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:49.219[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]10[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Aleix Espargaro[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Power Electronics Aspar[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]ART[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:49.348[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]11[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Nicky Hayden[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Ducati Team[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Ducati[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:49.428[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]12[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Andrea Iannone[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Energy T.I. Pramac Racing[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]Ducati[/TD] [TD="class: resultElement, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]1:50.094[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Its interesting you should write this as I was thinking the same thing watching qualifying just now. I know he has his injuries that he's still recovering from, but to me it seems that at the start of the season he was pushing to show how good he was, get the factory ride etc. Now he has that has he gone off the boil a bit as in a way he's achieved what he needed from this season and that was a factory ride.
So here's the thing: Supposing that Lorenzo had the Honda, and Marquez the Yam. Would he still be winning? There really isn't much between the two, and it seems that the Hondas are just faster (viz Bradl, Bautista vs The Doctor). Yes Marquez is an astonishing talent, but he is on the best bike. Is it the bike that shading it?
Yes, just. Lorenzo is riding beyond the Yamaha, Marquez is brilliant but still a rookie on the best bike, Pedrosa has missed the boat and Rossi is just enjoying himself. Don't know about Cal, clearly the guy has tremendous ability but has gone off the boil for some reason; is it the bike or is it him, who knows. I think what it all shows is that the difference between winning and losing is miniscule.
see what happened to Pedrosa straight after marquez bust his rear wheel sensor, he high sided!........and they say electrics is the way forward.....
maybe they have stopped investing new parts in Cal as he is leaving..............and the others have moved on?
it's all a conspiracy.... MotoGP Aragon: Crutchlow suspicious over speed deficit | Bikesport News | BSB, MotoGP News
VR looked dejected at the end and knackered! Think he's done and is starting to see it, as 4th isn't good enough Think Marquez style fits the Honda, if he was riding Yamaha I reckon he's good enough to change his style to. Anyone notice the lean angles? They even mentioned in commentary that Pedrosa and Lorenzo carry more lean angle because Marquez hangs off that much further
pedrosa has suffered 2 lots of bad luck this season so far..if he fell into a bucket of tits hed come out sucking his thumb latest reports are there was contact between marquez and pedrosa. marquez went in way too hot and the slightest contact broke pedrosas protruding rear wheel traction control sensor sending him flying. they are all championship contenders and considering pedrosa was in front. im gonna make a bold decision and say marquez should be docked his race win points. ( it wont happen - but if I was in charge ) race control has requested a report from honda for whatever reason
What ever the cause of the crash, dragging off a rear wheel sensor or whatever, you can say one thing for sure, that's the end of Pedrosa. Marquez won't be docked anything and baring accidents the title will be his for before Hondas home race at Motegi. The King is dead, long live the King. I like Lorenzo's strategy of absolutely nailing it from the start, which is okay in principle, but it will bite him when a coldish tyre lets go in the first few corners. Regarding Vale, I seem to remember reading a Mat Oxley column recently about how 4th place is THE worst place to finish, but sadly Rossi's positions are unlikely to change, esp with the fuel going down again next year Not sure what happened to Cal, but you can see he's still trying so as a fan, you cant ask much more than that Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong :tongue:
Dock his points? Maybe if Pedrosa didnt rely on electronics and Honda didnt put it so it could be knocked, it wouldnt have happened. Jusy another example of a devine intervention as clearly Pedders has done something in a previous life which means he will not be allowed to be champion in this
ohh I know points wont be docked.. but if I were in charge lol (if they were it would be god for the champoinship !! )
