British Indy: What Happens Now?

Discussion in 'Wasteland' started by Loz, May 23, 2015.

?
  1. Full Brexit with "no EU deal" on the 29th March.

  2. Request Extension to article 50 to allow a general election and new negotiations.

  3. Request Extension to article 50 to allow cross party talks and a new deal to be put to EU.

  4. Request Extension to article 50 to allow a second referendum on 1. Remain in EU or 2. Full Brexit.

  5. Table a motion in parliament to Remain in EU WITHOUT a referendum.

  6. I don't know or I don't care anymore

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  2. Falls back? You been outside lately?
     
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  3. She's doing exactly what she should be doing, and that is keeping her cards close to her chest and not rising to ridiculous demands from other party leaders.

    The end of the day she was handed a tough fucking job, the bloke who set this in motion is a coward and has been in hiding ever since and you have an opposition party in that of labour that doesn't stand for anything of substance. They don't have any official stance on anything and all seem at odds with each other.

    At the end of the day I'd vote her in again if they called an election tomorrow.
     
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  4. I still reckon when it comes to the final point, the Government will go for a vote on the style of Brexit, especially if their proposals are not welcomed by the business world.

    To do otherwise could be political suicide and any Party is only interested in staying in power. To force a Brexit that is not popular with the majority and may lose hundreds and thousands of jobs would be political suicide.
     
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  5. They will try and see business's point of view and try and accommodate them but at the end of the 2 years there is a general election due soon after and business does not, despite what some in here infer, decide who we elect as mp's and therefore the government.

    Brexit was not a multiple choice, it was stay or leave, we chose to leave. If they get the right deal for the majority of the people then politically it will not be suicide but will more likely, see the end of Labour for decades. As to loss of jobs , project fear is over duke, we have seen more jobs come to the U.K. since we voted to leave, we have one of the best rising economies of most EU countries and we have more Europeans wanting to come and live here than us wanting to leave and live there and you know this :tongue:
     
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  6. You have no idea how business, particularly big business works.
     
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  7. And you have no idea what happens when elections happen and how 1 person 1 vote beats any business wishes.
     
  8. A bold statement to make! What may I ask is your pedigree in big business then? How do you know that Noobie is not Lord Sugar in disguise? A bit presumptuous on your part I think.
     
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  9. Duke, you're fired :grinning:
     
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  10. He might be Donald Trump. Noobs, where do you want this wall? I can start Wednesday. :Cigar:
     
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  11. Hell Tee, can we have a new Rating next to "Funny" called "Fucking Dying With Laughter Here"?
     
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  12. You've no idea how to get yourself dressed in the morning or tie your shoe laces. :Facepalm:
     
  13. I'm still struggling with what all the shock is about this morning.

    Project fear may be nearly over but it seems project naivety is well and truly rolling on, and i mean that towards the media and remain camp.

    The PM has never, not once suggested anything but leaving the EU.

    Brexit means Brexit is basically saying we are leaving the EU.

    Therefore we cannot stay within the current existing single market agreement, and we will need to make a new one, pretty simple conclusion, that's business.

    Saying that we won't have access is preposterous, of course we bloody will, it's naive to suggest otherwise.

    We have goods & services to sell that are wanted by buyers within the EU, just like they have goods we want, it will just now depend on what terms they are supplied under and that's what the negotiations will be all about

    Take the talk about tariffs:

    Some areas of industry may not be affected at all, why? Because the reciprocal tariffs applied to the similar EU goods being sold in the UK would simply counter those applied the other way. Tit for tat

    Some areas of industry however will be affected, therefore it's matter of what deal we will with have with the EU on those particular goods or services.

    It's then a matter of working through it, putting up with the terms and being happy with what we've got and then seeing what other deal we can get with the rest of the world for those products / services in the future.

    At that stage you aren't closed off to just the EU suppliers/buyers, therefore if they make things too expensive or awkward then they have to be prepared to lose sales / UK market share because we are in a position to trade freely outside of the EU and they aren't.

    People need to get a grip, it's not going to be crystal clear until talks take place, they'll be different outcomes for different industries just watch this space.
     
    #5495 damodici, Jan 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2017
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  14. Because investors don't want their money in pounds sterling if UK business does not have the same or very similar access to the market as it does now. It's not difficult to guess why that is.
     
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  15. I can see Hadrian's Wall from my house, I'm tempted to start a petition for it to be rebuilt. :) The only downside is that I'm on the north side of it and will be trapped in with the sweaties. :Banghead: :Banghead: :Banghead: :Banghead:

    They do have some good roads though. :D
     
  16. Whilst I see your point and can understand why you come to that conclusion there is more than one half to that coin.

    So, after a negotiation a UK business ends up having access to the single market but under a new trade agreement, whether tariff based or otherwise, but ultimately the cost is increased due to the 'barriers' of trade put up by members of the EU. Therefore worse than it is now

    Well, take an investor of an EU based business, who's major target market is the UK.

    Would you be happy as an investor backing an EU company who has just had its major target market restricted if we reciprocate 'barriers'?

    No, of course not.


    Cars are a great example.

    In the UK we produce many cars, for many worldwide markets, but we still import a vast amount which aren't built here, a vast amount

    So, the EU slaps 10% on any cars we build here in the UK which are destined for EU sale.

    EU diplomats from Poland, Belgium, Spain (just examples) are all sat there nodding at what a great idea that is, that'll show those 'little Englanders' they say

    But not Mrs Merkel, she's sitting there glum faced thinking it's a piss poor idea.

    Why? Well she knows if the UK applies the same tactics on cars not manufactured in the UK it'll be 5 minutes flat before she receives a call from VAG, Mercedes and BMW wondering why she's voted on something that could hammer there sales and her own economy.

    What's VAG, Mercedes and BMW's choice going forward?

    Absorb the additional costs so not to lose market share? Quite possibly

    Decide to build extra UK plants to manufacture and circumvent those tariffs?

    Depends on how the numbers stack up, but viable

    Either way, it'll cost them money, and headaches, just the same as us and so you have to ask is it worth it?

    I'm not rose tinted enough to think it'll work that way on all fronts, but people seem to forget how important a market we are for various huge EU businesses too, and they'll be equally making some noise to their respective 'leaders' sat at the big table of 27 ensuring they don't lose the UK side of their business.
     
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  17. The problem is that car manufacture is a special case.

    Whilst cars are built in both the UK and Europe often by the same group, the parts will be made say in Spain and exported to Germany to fit to some VW models and vice versa in a VW factory for Spain. This is also true for Bentley in the UK who use VW parts and Nissan in Sunderland who use Renault group parts. I would guess the same is partly true of Mini and BMW. It isn't just about movement of vehicles for sale but movement of parts for those vehicles to be manufactured.

    I have no idea how they will sort all that out but the EU is a separate entity to VAG or Mercedes or BMW. There is absolutely no way that the basic principles of free movement of people being entwined with free trade access will be foregone by the EU for Britain or BMW or VAG.

    My gut feeling is that initially at least, Britain will remain a part of the custom union as that will at least allow the Government to control immigration whilst retaining access to the free market. I suspect they may end up having no choice in the matter when it comes to the crunch as i think that this would be the very best/worst (dependent on your viewpoint) case scenario that would get approval in Parliament and the House of Lords.

    Like it or not the markets can make or break this Country financially.
     
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