Where will biking be in 10 or 20 years?

Absolutely no doubt about it. Apart from the difficulties in getting started,for those of us who started many years ago cars weren't an option,it was a cost issue. These days a car is cheaper than a decent sized bike to buy, and especially run. As you say the average age is rising,legislation is increasing and difficulties for new aspiring motorcyclists is a barrier. The poweres to be both nationally and in Brussels want us gone. At the rate things are going they will get their wish:frown:

 

Other than a few teens on the twist and go scooters, I can only think of one or two 17-25 year olds that I see out on bikes near me.

Yeah our days are certainly over, our breed will die out in the not too distant future. :frown:

 

You're right Ken, as already said - back 'then' although some teenagers were hell bent on getting a bike anyway, the majority bought one as a first means to get about on because it was cheaper and easier - (imagine 250 cc on a provisional (CBT the nearest equivalent?) now!). I can't remember the exact figure but it has been said that there was around a 40% reduction in applications for a motorcycle test in the year when it got considerably more difficult recently.

 

Legislation is slowly strangling the attraction to biking, if they introduced the same rules for car licences ( that potentially can cause far more damage) there would be a massive outcry from the general public and the motoring organisations. They (the powers that be) have deliberately picked on a minority group to start with that has a small voice. I wonder if this was brought up as an equal rights issue would it stand up in court as it is a form of discrimination if I can drive any size of motor car at 17 when I have only taken a theory and practical why can't I do the same on a bike.

 

I'm not so sure I share your views. The number of scooter commuters into London has increased massively since I started riding. You just have to look at LondonBikers to see the number of new riders joining up.

 

but just how many times can you renew your CBT currently Jerry - assuming this represents most of above mentioned?

 

no idea. Are you saying that people (who already have a scoot and at least a lid) will be put off doing their test? Have you seen the cost of a season ticket into London? I believe that from where I am (still a London zone, 10 miles from the centre) it's over £2,200 a year.

For that, you could buy a reliable bike for £4,000 (sell it after 3 years for £2,000), goretex suit, £1,000 and a £500 hat, three sets of tyres, fuel, nsurance etc and still make a considerable saving. That's forgetting the reduced journey time.

I agree that the Eurocrats are trying to price us off the roads tho. Looking purely at numbers, kids are safer inside a shed on wheels than on a bike.

 

Where will we all be in 10 or 20 years ? Once the Project falls over, and all of the EU nonsense returns from whence it came, we will be poorer but hopefully free to innovate once again and biking can return to its roots. And that is the positive outlook.

 

I think a lot of them will yes - I will try and find a statistics source for Current test application/pass but as said, if the figures are truly down by even 30% then that speaks for itself (MOO)

 

fair enough, but at some point those people will be looking at their next bike and as you say, they will have to take their test.

 

I agree with Jerry here. Numbers are growing, most on scooters will stay on scooters or quit but rest will move to bigger bike. Yes test is expensive but do you have to do a DAS test? CBT is about 100GBP and soon you will have to repeat it every year. 5 years top and price will be the same as doing motorcycle licence (no DAS). However after 5 years you will be long able to ride big bikes. Cost wise get a Vauxhall corsa (old one) and test how much it will cost you as 18y old to insure in London. You will start thinking 125 cc scooter is cheap. Finally at any work I always found someone riding scooter or 125 on CBT saying they are not doing big bike test because it is expensive. When I ask which test they all with no fail go DAS. No one even thinks about A2. However A2 can cost you as little as 350 GBP with practical test fees (assuming you know how to ride and pay for only one or two lessons to asses). Oh and test is hard but it is not all that hard TBH. There is few cheeky tests that have nothing to do with riding but hey just memorise them. Then it is the avoidance test and even if it is hard well it is also quite handy.

 

Both my boys want to ride bikes when they are old enough, and given the way car insurance is costing more than the car itself is worth (it's the cost of who they hit) I think it will be all the young can afford soon. They do not need to legislate against young drivers the insurance companies are doing it for them and trust me the government (be it red, blue or yellow) loves it because they can sit back and say it is not us it's the insurance companies.

 

This is very hard to call without real numbers. The bike manufacturing marketing departments will have those. I suspect an ageing user pyramid. For one reason, the population is ageing overall, but also for people my age, 50, things were much more bike friendly when we were younger. You don't expect young people to take to 2 wheels in anything like the numbers these days. Cars more affordable, relatively. The fun of riding a bike increasingly legislated against. Other things like mobile phone and video games eat up disposable income for the young. it might mean smaller companies like Ducati or Aprilia or KTM going bust over time as they chase a shrinking customer base - unless they start selling in Asia big time.

 

KTM have some very nice bikes in the sub 600cc range. i think they're looking at the market.

TBH, I'm not sure anyone would have relevant stats post-test. Younger riders often look at cheaper bikes - monsters, cb500s, anything sub £2,000. The dealers selling those wouldn't be contributing to stats in any meaningful way.

 

The new KTM 600 single has same service intervals as 2V monster so well impressed.

 

lots of bio/electric fueled scooters i reckon

 

You'd just be dong standard market research finding out what % of the population has a bike / has recently bought a bike / new- secondhand etc and split it by age group and compare the trend over the past 5 to 10 years. All noddy stuff. At the very least you'd expect Honda and Yam to have this - and obviously the Motorcycle Association. If not, I'll come and do their marketing for them.

 

Dont think it's quite as bad as some may think, I see lots of young guys on scooters and 125 with L plates. My 18 year old has been riding a KTM 125 Duke for a year now which came with a years free insurance; he looked at getting a car and the cheapest quote was over £3000 for third party insurance.
Getting through the bike test is tough (and about to get tougher) but getting on a bike may still be the cheaper option compared to a car, just depends on what insurance company's charge. My lad takes the last part of his test Wednesday and has a 2005 620 Multistrada lined up as his first big bike and has a TPFT quote for £ 600. His 18 year old pal has passed his test and now rides a 650 Bandit so the next generation are coming through.