I’ve spent a few years working on a blue sky project for autonomous vehicles , I also asked a lot of the old bloke questions you have . The ownership of cars won’t really exist a car will turn up to take you somewhere and then go and do something else , that along with them being too expensive and their real world use currently doesn’t make sense. If this is true negates the got no infrastructure at every house debate. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it not happening , the penalty clauses for OEM’s will be enormous very soon , in fact it’s already started. The new 0 BIK rules will start the trend , and the fact they will need to get back their revenue from fuel will mean more expensive fuel and electricity. It might not be 12 years but it’s unlikely to be more than 15. The residuals is a good question though , who knows.. 12 years is ages away for me , so I’ll enjoy my internal combustion engines until I can’t.
Autonomous vehicles on the public highways , not very likely until they figure out how it’ll choose to run down the old man or the teenager , I.e we’d choose the old man, how would the AI deal with that?.
Very quickly..... What about Male / Female. Black / White / Chinese Wheel Chair or Horse.... Remember plenty of us have crashed a car avoiding an animal.
The autonomous part will come later ,though they do have a 10 year target . I believe they will be well on the way to cracking it in that time. I suppose it depends on how they tax fuel as for the residuals for our vehicles? I have a diesel Audi that I want to keep , it’s a low emission car ( at the moment) What do you believe might happen to the prices ?
It’s a good point , the tech is probably a year away , the moral decision making software , that’s the hard bit.
And it'd be all of 5 mins before some toe tag spoofs your RFD chip and 'charges' their battery top up to your account. Easy to do if you watch the videos of crims taking keyless entry cars from people's driveways using cheap kit they've bought off eBay. This is all a misguided knee-jerk reaction to the simple fact that if the human race really want to do something positive about climate change, then personal transport is NOT an option for the vast majority of people, at least those near to major conurbations. Rural regions, well who knows how we deal with that thorny issue?!
Driverless cars will surely destroy the car industry.Who needs a car if you dont even drive it?Sitting unused for the most part,then just sitting in the back for a journey.You might as well just call a taxi.If everyone thinks the same then one taxi will cover ten people,twenty people,more?What would happen to the car industry if the amount of vehicles being produced was reduced by that amount,or more?
the tech is here already .. the computer can work out the difference in young and old, cat and dog buy facial recognition software (or whatever its called when pertaining to animals if a choice between human and dog has to be made). as far a moral decision making, id imagine very few humans involved in an accident would have the time or smarts to act upon morals and the likelihood of the option of taking out a baby or a grandad doesn't happen a great deal... a computer would probably be better suited to make these calls...
It will reduce drastically , but it has too . For the past 30 years I’ve seen approx 150,000 cars a year being built , sure there was a drop off 10 years ago but it’s crazy , and that’s just a small plant in the UK Creating an environment for people and having things to do in a vehicle that will be totally alien to most of us should be really interesting. Thank heavens I’m going to miss it
It’ll be the cats and dogs that survive then, based on the huge number of “likes” they get on soshull me-jar!
The difference is some spotty kid developer in Silicon Valley will determine who had the best value to society Imgane the uproar when Bentley driver ploughs into bus queue of people to avoid something deemed more likely to save the driver
would the Bentley driver make a different decision to the spotty faced programmer? probably not.. i think a computer programed with the right set of variables would be more likely to make the correct call and act upon it in a split second moment... dont get me wrong, im anti autonomous vehicles all the way.. i just think the argument of the decision making of a computer is a bit of a dead duck as they are probably better equipped to make a rational decision than a human.
The computer may be more swayed by the Facebonk profile and credit rating to choose who is less necessary in this world. That’s why the cats and dogs are going to be OK.
The reality is we don't KNOW what's going to happen, so don't waste what precious time we have left ( another thing we don't know), worrying about things out of your control. Que sera, sera. Live each day as if it were your last. Get out and ride the tits off your bikes.
I don't think the computers are better equipped to make a decision than a human, pre impact at all. The difference will be that the computer will always make the same decision, based on its programming. & the human does not. Therefore - just for example- if the AI is set to hit the old people instead of the cats, the old people will quickly realise this via digital SUN & Daily Hate Mail and there will be uproar.
the computer doesn't have to make the same decision every time.. toss in a random number generator. give a lil better odds to the young or the cat and take the gamble...
The move to electric vehicles is most likely more to do with reducing the wests reliance on oil, it’s a diminishing resource and will become a real hot potato in the not too distant future, I.e the Chinese, Americans, Russians want it so what’s going to happen, fight!, also less reliance on oil will also reduce the power of the Arab states, it will be some time before it can be left in the ground due to it’s use in plastics etc but I’m suspicious that the real reason that the west is so keen to reduce emissions has more to do with the above than saving the planet, looking back at global temperatures over the last 2000 years is interesting, Middle Ages warm!, 1k years ago warm!, 1.5k years ago warm!, not sure how many Ducati’s were around at those times but I doubt it was many.
