Erm, wrong on so many counts - it's such simple mathematics, and our Range Rovers do not predominately go to Europe - are you another one of those 'remainer' experts? and what about Japan then?
Perhaps you could explain what you thought vote leave was given it was never tied to any deal but to leave the eu system?
I think most would agree that we should have just one brexit master thread and any extra ones that start up, move them into that thread
Yes, that’s as things stand. But - my question was do you think the EU would have not agreed the same deal with Japan if we had voted remain, so they would have protected manufacturing in the U.K. ?
I agree that this is the key issue. I am someone who you might describe as a reluctant remainer, I'm aware that they EU is not perfect, but the idea that you can simply strip us out of systems that we have integrated into over the last 30/40 years easily is just fantasy. In my view there are two simple ways we could leave the EU. 1) A close relationship (like Norway/Switzerland). This would still leave us adopting most EU laws and in all probability accepting freedom of movement too, so not exactly taking back control. The leavers were keen to promote these sort of relationships before the vote and I think many remainers / businesses would have accepted this as a logical position for a close vote. 2) A simple FTA (like Canada) and this was reportedly offered to the UK early in the negotiations. The key issue with this is that this does not allow free trade of services (which as I said uis the area that the UK profits from in its relations with the EU) and does not allow free movement of goods, so JIT manufacturers like JLR etc. cannot work effectively. Mays deal trys to get some sort of hybrid of these two which her supporters would say gives the best of both, but which I as a businessman trading around the world say gives is the worst of both. So a range of deals was possible, but the leave side effectively sold a dummy by suggesting 1) and then wanting 2). Both options would take some considerable time to put in place by the way.
As I said I've spent the last 30 years working in the export of UK products and services. I've lived in Singapore and North America and recently spent 5 years working for a UK / Finnish company. So my knowledge is based in reality it's not just an opinion. Your point about Range Rovers is misplaced. Although the majority are not sold to the EU, every single one has a gearbox and other items sourced from within the EU. Leaving the EU interrupts the JIT process which is based on the free movement of goods.
All fair points but it misses the key points as recently highlighted by the Honda decision Business has no loyalty to anyone other than shareholders and people in a democratic country, people should listen to business, but never let it rule your decision because as soon as it suits them, they will feck off and leave you in the lurch. jit is business's 3d chess, they created a game where only they can win as they created the rules and everything is based around them but they tell you that you are an equal player. The very last thing business wants, is people being allowed to vote and possibly change things.
Just seen this. Not sure I’ll ever ‘get it’ all. Do you think the U.K. were aware that a deal with Japan could threaten the Honda plant ? It makes me think being a member of the EU doesn’t really help / affect manufacturing in the U.K. - there are many more factors that have a bigger bearing on where manufacturing takes place.
It is my understanding that the UK thought that this deal would help its UK based manufacturing for Japanese companies that were based in the UK. That only holds true while the UK remained in the EU though. Frankly I am inclined to listen to the Honda people when they say Brexit was not a key issue in the Honda pull out, but if you do that then you must also listen to JLR, Ford and Nissan who say that it is.
Yes and no. Yes you are correct, all business are responsible first and foremost to their shareholders, no one else. No because all businesses are looking for 'good' places to do business and being part of the EU is far more attractive than being outside it for most manufacturing.
People in the know were probably expecting Honda to close the plant then. I don’t know much about the motor industry, but perhaps they’re all lying. Honda is partly due to brexit and the others aren’t.
Politicians lie all the time, that seems clear, but generally business people are better since they carry more clear responsibility. My take is that this decisions has been taken at a very high level in Japan, and I would accept their statement that Brexit is not a driver, but as I noted I would also accept the point made by Ford, Nissan, JRL and others that Brexit is impacting their business decisions.
If you have plants throughout the world and half of them are under producing due to a massive drop in new car sales, then you will seek to reduce costs and always leave your own country last to face the consequences. Honda probably stayed in the U.K. longer that they should have done given the massive sales drop and that was primarily I feel due to it not wanting to re-invest in another european plant. When the eu/japan agreement was forged , it meant they didn't have too. and yes, the motor industry has always been more arthur daily than sister theresa. The last two or three years have given good grounds for that opinion The timing of the announcement just 5 weeks before the leave date has eu written all over it.
