British Indy: What Happens Now?

Perhaps we smell and drink that coffee rather than a wheat grass and kale smoothie?

Anyone would think we are asking for something like a majority democratic vote to be acted upon, perish the thought.

 

I still think the chaos that we see now is down to 3 years of trying to remain in one form or another.

i wouldn't see myself as an 'evangelical leaver', what frustrates me is finding straight answers to things like why it will be so bad etc etc.

 

I understand that you are completely committed to your cause, but I'll return to my original point.

There were always two simple ways to leave the EU that were open to us that this government have avoided for there own political reasons. They have created this chaos. Why?

As a person who has bought and sold companies in the UK, North America and Asia I am very well versed in the benefits of change where they are available, but as someone who has spent his life exporting UK products (and therefore keeping jobs in the UK), the current process is forcing me to offshore those. Are you happy that is the case ??

 

...or maybe we saw the same Government deport British Citizens from the Windrush Generation and are more aware of their end goals?

 

The leave vote was as clear as day as to what it meant. It was also clear from leavers that we wished to leave with a deal that was both fair to the eu and to us as we moved onto becoming a third country. I have yet to see a third party deal that has no control from the eu, to include free movement, can you name one?

As with all of those purchases and moves, you would not have made them unless they were beneficial to you and those companies, I doubt the local population got much say in it. As with other countries, you will have had to make decisions based on the rules of that country and fixing your business into a democracy, that has not changed in the U.K. as business will have to evolve to meet the democratic changes countries often have.

If you chose to move your business, that will be based on profit and not people.

 

phew, for a moment I thought you were going to introduce facts then

 

I can see that this is the case, but as with all future business arrangements there is scope for agreement in direction even if the is disagreement on the exact details.

The key issue for me (and m any business people is).

1) Currently around 44% of UK exports to the EU. A further 16% (ish depends on years and exact criteria) are exported to countries which have free trade agreements with the EU. So if we leave with no deal almost two thirds of our exports are immediately subject to rules which are unclear. (note WTO is not the solution many suggest it is as Michael Gove explained to the dismay of many farmers yesterday).

So people will say to me, please can you export to other countries instead, and the answer to that is I'm already doing to my damnedest to export to every country I can, making exports to two thirds or our market more difficult does nothing to help that.

Leaver Liam Fox clearly said that they would have all the trade agreements ready to go when we leave. I think so far he has concluded very few and none with our major export partners.

2) FOM is a big issue for many UK companies, not only can I hire staff from around Europe, but when a large installation is required in another EU country I can happily send UK staff to install the systems and train their staff without any concerns that this is legal. Leave with no deal and my UK staff are not certain to be able to do this. To be sure that I can complete contracts in the EU, I will need staff in the EU.

3) Uncertainly is the death of business confidence. If you are a disaster capitalist and like to benefit from the uncertainty that market upheaval brings you'll be loving this, but businesses who sell real stuff hate it.

I do agree that many of the disaster stories have been ridiculous, but if we are about to go through a no deal exit it is time to put the tin hat on.

 

Ok, some probable outcomes.


My opinion (for what it's worth)
I thought devaluing of sterling helped to encourage foreign investment ?
I'm not sure about the younger generation working in Europe, do you think many do ? and I think they would obtain relevant work visa etc if they really wanted to.

I've not seen anything about privatisation of the NHS increasing - will have a look.

Assuming all of these outcomes happen, do you think that would be disastrous for the UK ?

 

I don't know enough about the export business to disagree with anything there, my only question would be on the FOM, I see what you are saying but wouldn't it be a case of getting a visa for the UK staff to work in the EU ?

and a follow up question would be, do you see this as disastrous ?

 

It could, but there is precious little indication of those sunlit uplands at the moment. Of course that trade deal with the Faroes will help enormously....

 

as an addition to your question Alan
this from jb Less choices for younger generation finding jobs in Europe, due to freedom of movement restrictions.

really? how do you account for all those people who do not live in a eu country and yet as if by magic, work in a european country.

 

It’s one of the things that has annoyed me a bit, surely if you wanted to live and work in another country you would do what is needed to allow that.

 

Regarding the visa, yes that could be one option, but when dealing with visa requests they are problematic, they take an unknown time and can be refused for no reason (I once had a visa for Saudi refused because the form had not been filled in black ink). Given those sorts of issues as a company you would be better off employing staff in the EU than the UK.

Will it b disastrous? It all depends on your position. In my view as an exporter, a no deal will be disastrous for some companies in the short term (short term being up to three years in my view) Of course it depends, if you are running a B&B in Scarborough no deal might be good as people shy away from the typical Spanish holiday. No so much if you run the holiday company. Its all a question of perspective. To get some sense of the sentiment, take a look at what Michael Gove is now saying about export of meat and lamb, a big issue to many of my neighbours in West Yorkshire upland farms.

 

Remain means remain and no Brexit means no Brexit, to paraphrase TM.

Chris gave a full and clear answer to your question 3 but you keep claiming no one has bothered to answer - so many false claims