British Indy: What Happens Now?

No, I didn't mean your original question about tariffs, I meant my point about other posters not answering questions and making Ad Hominem attacks because they can't string together a coherent argument, especially when I'm out enjoying the sunshine at lunchtime

But... which is best? I don't think that it's valid to answer which is best over WTO, 0% or EU because they all have their own set of problems.

As pointed out, 0% tariffs means that no money goes to the government. It also means that we will get items made cheaper overseas (due to a lot of factors, not exclusive to cheaper labour, cheaper materials, economies of scale, local government subsidies, etc) imported into our market which could price our own goods out and thus cause problems with certain sectors of industry. This could be valid for all industries where there is a zero rate, but maybe not all products if we can be competitive locally. This is a classic example of why it's not just about the tariff that is applied to good coming into the country, but you also have to consider the economic impact to industry.

WTO tariffs bring their own set of issues. Some tariffs may rise, some may lower. What will the overall net effect be? I don't know because it will depend on what you buy. Personally I wouldn't buy a new car so any rise here won't affect me, but I may still buy oil for my car, and petrol, and parts that aren't made here so I may see those prices rise instead. Or some may fall due to cheaper competition from China/America/Brazil/wherever suddenly being more competitive and being able to sell the same goods cheaper. But WTO is not a long term strategy (the fact being that very few countries trade solely on WTO) and so this should only be considered a temporary position until trade deals are put in place, but again I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for those deals to happen given recent form.

EU tariffs are an interesting thing because we are (currently) part of the free trade zone, so any goods that are EU sourced are effectively tariff free. The nice thing about this is that it means we should pay the same price (except for currency fluctuations and local sales tax) as the rest of Europe, making buying those items nice and easy. The only issue is goods from outside the EU have their tariffs set by the EU, of which we are a member and have our own voting and veto rights, so we actually get a say in those tariffs right now. If we don't like them, we could get our MEPs to petition for change, table a motion, that kind of thing... you know, democratically.

It's also important to point out that the EU has trade deals, of which we are part, with other non-EU countries and thus we trade at a different rate to WTO rules. For example, the EU has a trade deal with countries including Israel, South Korea, Japan and Australia, so if we leave the UK, these trade deals will also revert to WTO and again may result in an increase in tariff (because why have a trade deal that's worse than WTO?). In some cases though, where there is no trade deal, we will continue to trade at WTO rates. One example that Full-Fact gives is bottled beer being exported by the EU (and UK) into the USA as zero rated as no trade deal is in place. This would therefore continue for the UK should it leave the EU and revert to WTO rules. This would have no change in the export position or import position for the UK of this particular item, so there would be no gain or loss from WTO rules.

My point about everything being more expensive if we leave the EU was in relation to leaving and reverting to WTO for EU goods, of which make up 66% of all imports (which includes those other countries we have an EU deal with, as mentioned above). We currently have a free trade agreement in place for European goods, and reverting to WTO means there will be tariffs placed upon them thus instantly making them cost more. As I said previously, that cost will not be borne by the importer but merely passed onto the customer, as it currently is right now for goods imported from outside the EU where there is a tariff applied.

And so, to reiterate my point, this is why I feel that people who want to "Leave now on WTO" to be somewhat over-simplifying the issue!

 

Thank you, that’s a good response to my question.
Good to have differing opinions to read especially, as you rightly say, it is a complex issue.

My initial thoughts are, relating to Brexit, some items may initially be more expensive but in the long term who knows.
Something that gets a tariff applied when(if) we leave the Eu may well be available from other countries, so I think it comes back to the problem being politicians have spent 3 years trying to remain, rather than negotiating trade deals.
My argument is not so much Leave now on WTO it is that that is where they should have started from 3 years ago.

 

I don't think that we have that much of a differing opinion! We both realise that WTO is not the target. The only difference is that I think that we should avoid it at all costs.

While I am not happy to leave (have you noticed? Did I mention it? ) I still believe that our MPs must act in the interest of the entire country, and I believe that means getting a deal before we leave, and not leaving if we can't get a deal that doesn't cause damage to the country either financially or by reputation.

We already have an awesome trade deal with the EU and everyone has acknowledged that we won't get a better deal now, so the benefits of leaving are starting to disappear...

 

You might have mentioned once or twice you think we should remain

Although I think we should leave, you are probably right and we have come to the point where remaining might make more sense. I suppose then that the politicians have achieved what they wanted and should be applauded, even though the people disagreed.

 

The problem is that most people (myself included) will see this as a big failure: of democracy, of the government, of Britain.

We must remember that ultimately MPs should be voting for the good of the country over and above everything else, including party politics. Maybe they will have no choice?

 

It looks like getting to the point where they have no choice.

Hopefully the fact that they have failed miserably will be reflected in the next GE. It should have opened a lot of people’s eyes to what they are really concerned about

 

Unfortunately I think that this will just make things worse:
- many voters will lose confidence and not vote, although by the same token a lot of people may now actually take an interest and vote. This could cause a massive shift in voting demographics
- small independent parties like the aptly named Independent Party and the Brexit Party will split the voting for the major parties
- we may see another surge of UKIP and far-right votes
- it will become increasingly difficult to have a majority, and coalition governments will become the norm

In essence a coalition government is not a bad thing if the worst of both parties can be tamed by the best of the other, but look at the current coalition government where the DUP has been almost totally in control of the government despite only holding 10 seats in government. This is not representative of the majority and is more akin to the tail wagging the dog!

It must also be said that a lot of the smaller single-focus parties like UKIP and Brexit will have nothing in the way of policies for anything but their core focus. This was shown by Chief Gammon Farage recently saying that he won't release the manifesto until after the EU elections; most likely because he doesn't have one and once/if he gets voted in then he'll be back to his usual ways of taking his money while not turning up!

I really think it's going to get a lot worse now...

 

We must remember that mp's should be acting on behalf of their constituency above everything else as they gave them their job based on what they said they would do for them.

If that mp disagrees with that direction given by the people, then they can either step down or expect to be removed at some point.

 

But you're so wrong. Maybe you should look it up?

(edit) here's the link for you: https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/mps-and-political-artiesp

 

I did look it up, you did know that that site you posted, it's editor is Ian Dunt ? Jeez man get a grip, he speaks on tv with sky, al jazeera, bbc, guardian and the new european just as a few

https://www.politics.co.uk/author/ian-dunt

Every single mp's own responsibility is to their constitituency and no one else and certainly not a luvvie journalist ya daft apeth

 

100% Lightning, 100%. I was speaking, in response to @Darkness , on the basis the UK had left the EU as I think that was what the general vein of conversation was at that time i.e. hypothetically if the UK left with no deal. At least I think that's what the vein was but it's so hard to keep up with this thread and now I've discovered the OTHER brexit thread my days are ruined. And (I hate starting a sentence with 'and' but it seems right here) I agree 100%, if the UK decides not to levy the WTO tariffs that is the UK Govt's prerogative

 

Whatever happens it would be good to see Conservatives and Labour get very few votes.
I wonder, if all the so called opinions polls are correct, whether the Lib Dems will get a lot of votes as they are just saying we will cancel brexit.

 

IF the UK government did what was best for the UK,(and incidentally what the majority of those who could be arsed to vote voted for),then they would not levy tariffs UNLESS it was in the interests of the UK consumer to do so.
Removing the 12,000 + EU tariffs,(which importers claw back by adding the cost to UK retail prices on the goods they import),would reduce the price the UK buyer pays for those imports.
And signing reciprocal no-tariff trade deals with non-EU countries that want to import things that we either do not make,grow,or produce here,would widen the choice for UK consumers while at the same time keeping the prices as low as possible,AND allowing UK exports to be sold in those partner countries at the best price to their consumers too.
Signing tariff-free trade deals with countries that can supply goods currently sold to us in vast quantities by EU producers,(because non-EU imports are too expensive due to EU tariffs levied to protect EU producers from overseas competition),SHOULD make the EU keen to sign a tariff-free trade deal with the UK too...why anyone thinks that EU companies would accept being priced out of the worlds fifth largest economy at the whim of politicians I shall never know).
But in answer to your question,I do not,(and nor does anyone else),know what the UK government will do.
Politicians and civil servants pf all hues have been exposed by this farce as completely incompetent,absolutely oblivious to public opinion and unable to grasp the meaning of the word democracy.
The way things are going,this failure to represent the decision they themselves asked for,and the unmasking of the EU as nothing but an anti-democratic puppet show produced by fascists,is likely to lead to a swing to the right far greater than would it have been had the UK left the EU as desired....populists in Europe would have seen a proper and respectable route to achieve a return to genuinely democratic representation,and may well then have campaigned to achieve their goals via the ballot box instead of chucking rocks and barring migrant ships.
Those who refuse to accept the result of a democratically held referendum will only have themselves to blame if we get a really right wing government.