The SNP will take practically all Scottish seats from the Tories & Labour The Libs won't do anything on the day. They never do, and Jo Swinson isn't going to change that.
Those of you with long memories will recall that, just after he became Prime Minister in the summer of 2007, Gordon Brown seriously toyed with the idea of holding a snap general election that the opinion polls suggested he couldn't lose. Although legend has it that he took fright after David Cameron's well-received speech at the Tory party conference, it's likely that what actually played a bigger role in dissuading him was the publication of a poll showing that the Tories were faring significantly better in marginal seats that anyone had realised. . I wondered tonight if a similar turning-point had occurred with the publication of an Opinium poll showing a mammoth sixteen-point Tory lead, up three points on the equivalent poll last week. Labour MPs were already highly resistant to the idea of allowing a December election due to their deficit in the polls, but if that deficit is growing even wider, it may be psychologically impossible for Jeremy Corbyn to lead his troops through the Aye lobby on Monday. But just when you thought it was safe to forget all about an election until next year, tonight brings news of a joint SNP-Lib Dem initiative to circumvent the two-thirds majority requirement in the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and bring about a December election regardless of whether Labour vote for one or not. I said in my previous post that the only way of breaking the deadlock might be for the three parties that appear to have something to gain from an immediate election - namely the SNP, the Tories and the Lib Dems - to reach an understanding between themselves, and it looks very much like that's what's been going on behind the scenes. Obviously there'll be no mention of Tory involvement to maintain plausible deniability on all sides, but the bottom line is that everyone knows this plan can only work with Tory acquiescence, and if Boris Johnson is serious about wanting a December vote, that acquiescence will surely be forthcoming. . Apparently Plan A is for the Liberal Democrats to attempt to amend the Fixed Term Parliaments Act to make provision for a general election on 9th December. That would only require a simple majority, so it should pass with Tory support. If for some reason it doesn't, Plan B would be for the SNP to table a motion of no confidence in the government under the existing terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which would also only require a simple majority. Presumably the Tories would abstain, and the vote would pass if Labour don't actively vote against it. (It would surely be unthinkable for Labour to vote that they had confidence in a Tory government, even as a means of avoiding an election?) That would trigger a 14-day deadline for a government to emerge that can win a confidence vote, and if that doesn't happen, parliament would automatically be dissolved and an election would be triggered. . Ian Blackford is a great guy and has really grown into his job as SNP group leader, but I must confess to a wry smile when I realised that his solution to the terrible problems he identified with the "barking mad" proposed election date of 12th December is to hold the election three days earlier. Yes, it's true, folks, canvassers will no longer have to ponder with dread the prospect of pounding the dark streets of Inverness in the middle of winter, because they'll now have a whole five more minutes of daylight to play with on polling day than they would have had if Boris Johnson had got his way. The sun rises in Inverness at 8.45am on 9th December, compared to 8.49am on the 12th. The sun sets at 3.32pm on the 9th, compared to 3.31pm on the 12th. A game-changer by any standards. So will this bold plan succeed? It's far from certain, but if it fails I suspect it'll be because either or both of the SNP and the Lib Dems get cold feet. I can't see the Tories standing in the way. https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/10/will-snp-and-lib-dems-bypass-labour.html
I'm not so sure, I reckon the Lib Dems really will make some strides into labour this time around. I know that the lefty bunch are a fickle group, but I've done a lot of reading of the comments section on the guardian website and its a huge majority of posters saying that they'd not vote for Corbyn, the Lib Dems seem to be their preferred ticket to avoid brexit entirely. I genuinely feel Corbyn is that polarising the damage to Labour this time could be considerable
All will be revealed at the GE & I suspect we won't have long to wait. Like you I expect the Lib vote to rise, but FPTP will render the effect to a minimal change.
I think it will be close between Lib Dem’s and Labour. Plenty of people don’t believe what they read about Corbyn and still support him, though the 100% remainers will go Lib Dem ? Similar with the leave voters, split between Tories (boo) and Brexit party. Therefore a GE solves nothing. REFERENDUM !!!! (Just saying )
People want or don't want Brexit. That doesn't mean they are going to make the Libs or Farage their government. Besides everyone knows that if LAB win or get in or a coalitionwith the SNP for example there will be a referendum. No reason for all LAB policy supporters (Tory haters) that want Brexit to desert as they can have both.
yer right Al, it should be more about this shit than Brexit shit. https://www.holyrood.com/editors-co...ay-into-the-world-of-politics-has-b_14616.htm
Just your regular reminder that: Parliament couldn't resolve the question, In or Out of EU Cameron could not achieve a compromise with the EU on the nature of EU membership Parliament couldn't resolve the question of the nature of the UK's continued membership in the EU Parliament turned the decision over to the Electorate The Electorate decided the issue, In or Out of the EU Parliament cannot resolve the question of the nature of the UK's exit from the EU Many people are waiting for Parliament to resolve the issue, with one of the potential solutions being to Remain in the EU Y'all get it yet or nah?
Its bound to have an effect. particularly on the die hards on both sides who will vote for Leave/ BP & Remain/LIB The others probably realise that Brexit is not the end of their world, who will probably get to vote again in a second referendum won't want Farage to be their PM or Swinson either.
That's a brilliant idea. Once Parliament knows what the Electorate wants, it can set about delivering it! Marvellous!
I don’t disagree. I just think Brexit has become such an issue that it will have too much effect on a GE, potentially leaving the U.K. with Farage or Swinson as PM. Referendum first avoids that potential
Personally I'd prefer that too, but Farage getting 300 MPs from a zero start or Swinson from eleven? If you're betting on that, I'm your bookie!
Yep, genius idea. I like it a lot. Predicted Referendum choices: Remain Leave via WA v2.0 Predicted result: 55%-45% Remain win on a 30% turnout. Pretty fucking definitive, if you ask me.
