British Indy: What Happens Now?

I've explained this before.

No Leave on future Referendum ballots, only faux-Leave or Remain.

They have learned their lesson.

It's. That. Simple.

 

Well, the options are:

Vote Tory/Labour/LibDem - 0% percent chance of meaningful Brexit
Vote Brexit Party - 0.5% of a TBP government with a 99% chance of a meaningful Brexit

I'm loving those odds. Truly.

 

Referendum first achieves nothing unless the numbers of MPs in each party reflect the referendum vote. They haven’t reflected the outcome of the first referendum for the past three and half years and that is the fundamental problem.

Another aspect to be developed in a forthcoming election is tactical candidacies. Take a look at the outcome of the Brecon & Radnor by election: it isn’t a Labour stronghold like the Welsh valleys.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brecon_and_Radnorshire_by-election

Traditionally it is a Lib-Dem or Conservative seat, Labour are doing quite well there to keep their deposit.

In the 2019 by election, the Lib-Dem vote was boosted by the decisions by other anti-Brexit parties to not stand, and indeed to actively campaign for the Lib-Dem candidate. Conversely, the Brexit Party did field a candidate which split the Leave vote.

The outcome was the Leave supporting Conservative and Brexit Party candidates had a larger combined vote than the Lib-Dem, but the Lib-Dem won the seat.

In a General Election this pattern may have massive affects in marginal seats.

 

The 2019 by-election "split Leave vote" is actually a chimera. At the time, there was still the belief that the Tories and TBP were both parties of Leave. This is false.

It is becoming clearly obvious to everyone paying attention that the Tories are most certainly not a Party of Leave but rather, a faux-Leave party at best - if not a full-blown Remain party. Fielding TBP candidates does not split the Leave vote in any real sense.

Alas, not enough people are paying attention to what it is the Tories are up to. Thus, TBP will lose votes to the Tories under false pretences and it will be the fault of an apathetic, oblivious electorate that the 2016 Ref result will fade into obscurity after the next GE either due to a Tory+allies win or a Labour+allies win.

 

Not based upon the Party's actual actions, no.

May offered WA v1.0, a recipe for a disadvantageous "Brexit" that could only lead to an ignominious return, cap-in-hand, to the EU fold.

BoJob offers WA v2.0, a watered-down version of a disadvantageous "Brexit" that could only lead to an ignominious return, cap-in-hand, to the EU fold.

Meanwhile, Tory MPs work directly with the EU to foil Brexit, and many of the much-vaunted ERG vote in favour of versions of "Leave" that resemble the treaties countries sign when they have been utterly defeated in a war.

Fool me once, shame on you ...

 

Yes.

Eventually.

It's how the EU, and the EU assets in the UK Parliament, operate.

The EU doesn't really ever say "No", it says "Not yet" ... until No is achieved.

Worst-case scenario for the EU - the UK establishment has to put in place faux-Leave to avoid civil unrest and wait for the worsening economic conditions that arise from faux-Leave to trigger a desire to return to the EU as a member.

 

Aberdeen is the finest village/settlement North of the Wall.