British Indy: What Happens Now?

from your sources? nah,seen them but it does pose the question on why are you here then? come on, breath buddy, breath. lets do it together. in 1.2.3.4.5. and out 1.2.3.4.5. ahhh that's better init?

 

Unfortunately like you I do share some scepticism regarding negotiation time scales, however that's more towards the EU as opposed to the rest of the world.

The problem with the EU, as pointed out by the news article I posted a page or so back, is that we have 27(?) other countries to try and get in agreement, all at once.

All it takes is opposition from someone like Malta or Poland against one element and it's stalled again.

Then when you've cracked that part another member state will spout up claiming to be aggrieved by something entirely different (see recent Belgium vs Canada deal)

Whilst this is happening however the economys of certain member states could well be taking a hit, obviously if the EU decided to impose any tariffs before the end of negotiations.

So for example, should the EU (not Germany) introduce measures which make importing cars vastly more expensive in the interim period, then it's very likely that the German economy will take a bit of a hit.

We're a big market for them and so if those sales slow you'll soon see pressure building from within the EU side, Germany will want whoever it is opposing the deal to keep quiet. Then they'll be infighting which weakens their position.

Consider each nation has there own vested interests, some will want things done quickly as their political career will be at stake to keep businesses happy, others however will be holding out for overseas workers rights etc (Poland I suspect)

That's what I think will take time, and so because the EU is so ridiculously hard to complete negotiations with, I also believe any of the 'other' trade agreements they've made with rest of world countries are probably not the best they could have been.

However, as opposed to the negative side look at the positive.

For a start, negotiations with other countries outside of the EU should be straight forward by comparison, those other countries will probably be just as relieved about that as we would be.

In the interim period we could simply continue to trade under the existing regulations in place by just absorbing them. As I've said before it keeps things ticking along and that's in all countries interests

In regards to how we decided to move forward as a nation in terms of trade models there are lots of good ideas, more coming out each week for different areas of business.

Unfortunately none that we can do before actually unshackling ourselves from the EU restraints, but when we do it's up to us how to proceed

This from the OBR for example mentions the notion of a change to the current agricultural arrangements (CAP), clealy it also goes on to say similar to the above in regards to 5 years + being more likely

Brexit will lead to cheaper food if right policies adopted, says OBR official

I think in time it'll start to become more and more apparent that the EU are awkward as a group to deal with, not the countries trying to do the deals with them.

Because Brexit is such a big story, these instances of awkwardness (bloody mindedness) will play out in public with the whole world watching.

That will start to effect the EU 'brand' and it won't be long before stances are softened or reform is called for from within the EU itself

Nobody likes a bully, and if they come across that way and this time in public, I'm fairly sure that everyone will want things buttoned off as quickly as possible.

 

There are stories in the newspapers today claiming certain Tory MP's are saying "hard" Brexit will lose the Tories the next election.They reason that the result of the Richmond by-election illustrates voters opinions better than the Referendum.
As one of the MPs mentioned represents my Constituency,he'll be getting a letter from me expressing my unhappiness.
More importantly,(if true),it exposes two things.
First,ever since I could read I've known no one takes any noticce of mid-term by-elections as the result,but the Tories didn't even field a candidate.
Second,it shows how,for politicians,the survival of the party is more important then the well-being of the Country.
If there was one story that demonstrates why people are unhappy with politicians,then this lays it bare.
No principles,no democracy,all self.
Every single one of them.Bloody disgraceful

 

there is off coarse the other side of the coin. think i only know one bexiter in the flesh,(and he lives in aylsebury) so i cant tell you if this is true or not.
James Pinpoints Real Brexit Obstacle, And It’s Not... - James O'Brien - Presenters - Radio - LBC

 

To be honest winning Richmond was easy as far as strategy goes.

Simply oppose Brexit, wave the naughty finger at the Tories who were in charge during the referendum and hey presto.

I reckon any lefty could have won that, Jesus even some great unwashed hippy could have won.

Lib dems are the worst of the worst though.

Limp, fickle and chameleon like.

 

He has a great point, and unfortunately that's probably true.

However, as long as they listen to the intellectual wing (his words) then I'm fairly sure that we'll do just fine.

You can't gaurantee all 100% of what everyone wanted, but most things are achievable to an extent.

Immigration hopefully likely to move to a points system as that's a quantified measure of who we're letting in and for what reason. That appeases people

Trade and access to 'THE' single market (sigh) is likely to take ages, obviously linked to the above (immigration)

The point is not about having access to the single market, because we will do, but it's whether we pay for it in membership payments,or tariffs.

IF it was 'free' access then we wouldn't be paying anything to anyone, but we all know that ain't gonna happen

However, the same argument could be said about remaining voters

For example, why did they vote the way they did?

Scared of the end of the world?

Concerned that they could no longer go to Europe on holiday?

Worried that all the 'free' trade we're doing will dry up?

Just different sides of the coin mate

 

A lot of people who voted remain are also those who voted Tory at the last election. That is why many Tory MPs are concerned about a hard Brexit.

 

for me voting remain was more to do with having the buffer between tory governments excess. if you follow what i follow and know the struggle and deceit particularly over he last 3 years (the vow,smith and the scotland bill). i think we are more set up for EU trade and depend more on emigration. that's fair init?.
i know yer in the background loz so please, for the sake of the forum collectives blood pressure, just leave it a while. :Hilarious:

 

I would agree the really rich tories, who tend to be in globalism in some way, such as Richmond, like to keep going to their second home in Tuscany, are pissed they might have to hire staff at a proper wage from the U.K. so those tory mp's are looking at Richmond if there voters are more 3 house people than 1 house.

I would not agree it is MOST, given the failure of every other party in the system as people seem to fall into tory as there seems little else worth voting for. Labours traditional voters are not there anymore, the flat cap and ferrets.

 

I would agree we cannot do without immigration and do rely on migrant low end labour. However I do not feel most people expect to stop immigration on the brexit side but more wanted to be able to control it ourselves. We could have seasonal workers permits, other countries have them. Say farms where they need 6 weeks of labour for the crops, the farmer would apply for the quota, they work for him, then they go home and during that time the farmer must ensure healthcare insurance, housing etc and again that they go back

You can argue about the specific details but as someone who voted Brexit, I voted for our ability to tailor our immigration to our need, rather than being told tough titty by another country/organisation.

 

I remember the booze cruise days over to France and Belgium

 

Oh you still can, well, cheaper than the UK anyway.

Germany tend to sell them at 5.50/20 pack, so still good value even at todays low exchange

 

Clegg is the worst kind of Europhile. No doubt he is looking to see where he can stick his snout in the trough.

 

I saw him this morning on the Sunday politics show with Andrew Neil and Neil Asked Clegg, isn't it time you dropped the democrat part from your name as you don't recognise democratic votes? Clegg stared blank face at him and said, I don't know what you are getting at?

 

Whether leave voter or remain voter, surely it's career politicians just like Nick Clegg that have many people voting for change as opposed to anything people like him say

What a conniving snake of a man, now good buddies with that other household favourite, Tony 'trust me' Blair

You'd need your head examined blindly following this bloke

 

Baccy/fags still cheap @ Adinkerke.50g pouch £7.25 Golden Virginia...I was there 2 hours ago...