Just remembered! I have shares in VW, as I wanted shares in Ducati but this was as near as I could get! They're in my "shit-list", as I've sold all the good'uns and just held on to the crap that has lost me money! Don't suppose that they will ever recover now and I can't face having a look!
exactly that, infact Merc part owned MV and ditched them for a shot at having Ducati and I believe Audi just did it as a massive willy waving excercise
They have indeed but it’s never taken off. To produce hydrogen, you need electricity. It makes no sense to use the electricity for producing hydrogen when the EV is much more efficient already. Even if hydrogen were used, it would be to power electric fuel cells and not ICEs. Which is what the Toyota already is.
VW aren't going pop any time soon. It's balance sheet debt, not all debt is equal (as Orwell might have said). Many major motor manufacturers are carrying debt. Tesla 10Bn, Toyota £33.5Bn, GM £6.Bn, Ford £3.4Bn, Merc £14Bn, BMW £11.6Bn. For comparison Amazon carries £108Bn. It gets me that Tesla's market cap is 12x revenue while VW is 2.6 - with BYD and other turbulence around the corner that has to change.
Just from our EV only fleet at work I can see how much VW are struggling. A couple of years ago the ID range didn’t look too bad, now they are 1/3 under range and a 1/3 over price. But they have some decent stuff in their range with the Cupras doing ok. The problem is that the speed of change is massive and VW are a very conservative company (with a small C) and are selling to many conservative buyers who may not be ready to switch to EV just yet. It’s been decades since they truly nailed the cheap/ fun/ well made formula. The ID range is utterly tedious and the ID4 is one of the worst cars I have ever driven. Shame as the last Passat in hybrid form was pretty decent and always the first pool car out the gate at work. On a wider note, I think the shift we are seeing now is potentially bigger than the Japanese revolution from the 60s to 80s. I can see several major players going under.
Classic incumbents dilemma. I went by the Tesla production line when it was in Lotus's Norwich factory ~2011 when they were a novelty. Amazing to compare where they are now.
Start to win people over? We have a completely EV fleet at work and don’t know a single person who would voluntarily go back to ICE. Dirt cheap to run, far quicker than ICE equivalent vehicles. Flexibility to charge at home for pennies or take 20 minutes at a services for an extra range of 250%+ miles. Mine does 360 miles in summer and 290 in winter on a charge, the solid batteries MG are introducing next year are twice as energy dense so expect 500+ miles on a charge for same money or even less. Cost per mile range has halved in the last decade and will continue to drop. Servicing at about a quarter the price of ICE, far less components to go wrong. As transport they are superior in every way to ICE. The myth that people don’t like EVs comes from people who have never lived with one, or believe what they read on the internet. The companies that will bankrupt themselves are those that don’t get fully on board with EVs. What car survey of EV drivers showed over 95% would be buying EV for their next car. For those that wouldn’t buy another, price was the most common reason but as the price differential gap has continued to drop that becomes less of an issue. Break even point for most EVs on cost is now around 10,000 miles. So a year in and you are saving money, or 4 months for my company EV. VW, and other European and Japanese makers, were guilty of ignoring the progress China was making. Much the same as the U.K. bike industry did - AMC were the first importer of Suzukis FFS.
That’s all well and good, and I’m not dissing your rationale, but I’m presuming as they’re fleet cars, they’re all leased and simply go back to the leasing company after 2 or 3 years? For the private punter, not using PCP to acquire, residuals are a distinct consideration. I’d consider an EV but I just can’t get it out of my head that I’d have virtually 100% depreciation over a 10 year period. Compared to our current diesel powered VW which is just coming up to 10 years old and still has a value equivalent to 30-35% of what we paid for it.
See JCB, he has his vans running hydrogen fuelled ICE engines, versions of the same engines in some of the machines his company produces
Without knowing much details I'm confident Ducati will survive any trouble with VW. I remember when Ducati, in the late 1990ies I believe, was owned by a group of private investors in Texas. That was shaky legs if anything!
Two aspects to that- look at present 10 year old EVs and although they are small in number the depreciation is broadly in line with ICE. Secondly I assume you are believing the battery life to be 10 years based on the 100% figure. Battery life in EVs has been the subject of the most misinformation of probably any aspect. Perhaps because people are used to dinsosaur aged tech of lead acid batteries that ICE cars have (and weirdly to me EVs still have a small 12v battery as well). Evidence is showing batteries lasting 100,000s of thousands of miles without failing and complete failure rates are far lower then comparable complete engine failures in ICE vehicles which can have a comparable cost. In addition battery prices are plummeting- they have halved in past three years and so it’s rare for the entire pack to die and sections can be swapped out. Out of a fleet of EVs of approx 700 I haven’t heard of a single battery related issue - however we do give back at 4 years. Also MG have announced battery lifetime battery warranty for all cars from next year and I am sure others will follow. At present warranties vary but are generally 7-10 years and guarantee no less than 5% drop in battery health over that time. I appreciate I must come across as a bit of fan boy for EVs but I am a proper old school petrol head, I have had Porsches, rebuilt Old Ford’s, minis and BL stuff, built a kit car and a couple of hovercraft. But I was always interested in making them as fast as possible. Even my fastest car was only just as quick as my present family hatch back EV. Performance wise they just piss on ICE. My last personal car was a Volvo V70 diesel with 280,000 miles on it for comparison. Would I buy an EV for personal use? Yes and we will when my wife needs her next car. Would I buy a new EV? I have only ever bought one new in my life as it was stupid cheap and can’t see me buying another one. I would genuinely recommend anyone take a long test drive in one and see how they get on, but perhaps give the VWs a miss. I was ‘forced’ into it through work but wouldn’t go back to ICE for a car now. Bikes are totally different though as I said in another thread as they aren’t just transport, but that’s another thread entirely.
One van. The problem with hydrogen is it has very small molecules so leaks very easily ( not a good thing in more than one way), it needs to be stored under very hugh pressure which means the fuel tanks need to be very strong and subsequently are heavy and finally its way more volatile than petrol. It may well work in commercial vehicles applications but it won't be very easy in cars and bikes.
Having worked in the pharmaceutical/ chemical industry and then the regulatory sector for those industries I have seen the ‘joys’ or working with hydrogen over many years. Everything you say is spot on. In industry most of the gas regulators, valves etc used for hydrogen have a 3 or 5 year life and are then replaced. Even small amounts of hydrogen make a mahoosive bang when mixed with air and ignited. For all the scaremongering about EV battery fires (like 80 litres of petrol is safe buy hey ho), I am amazed no one has picked up on the size of the bang if a single hydrogen fuel cell exploded. And also the fact that no one has a hydrogen plant at home as far as I am aware whereas everyone has electricity and most can get a car close enough to use it to charge the car for pennies.
Home hydrogen plants can be bought, somewhat surprisingly, and not that expensive.... thought about it when I had 10kw solar in my field, not sure how you then compress it down...
